Africa’s richest man and industrialist, Aliko Dangote, has expressed optimism that Nigeria’s naira will experience continued strengthening in the coming weeks as a result of improving market dynamics and the federal government’s reform policies.
Dangote made the remarks during a weekend visit by the Minister of Industry, Trade and Investment, Dr. Jumoke Oduwole, to the $20 billion Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals and Dangote Fertiliser Plant located in Ibeju-Lekki, Lagos.
“Exchange rate is stabilising”
Speaking during the inspection, Dangote said, “We are beginning to see some stability in the naira-to-dollar exchange rate, which has had a positive impact. There is now less fluctuation, and this has brought a degree of predictability to the market.”
He attributed the progress to “monetary policies being implemented by the Central Bank, the Naira-for-Crude policy, and other fiscal reforms.” These, he noted, are restoring investor confidence and allowing businesses to plan better.
Tinubu’s Naira-for-Crude policy praised
Dangote specifically lauded President Bola Ahmed Tinubu for initiating the Naira-for-Crude exchange model, which mandates local crude oil transactions to be settled in naira. According to him, this has reduced Nigeria’s dollar dependency for domestic fuel production and is positively impacting the FX market.
“His insistence that all crude oil transactions be conducted in naira has been particularly commendable,” Dangote stated, adding that the initiative, along with ‘Nigeria First’ procurement policies, is giving local industries a chance to thrive.
President Tinubu’s reforms, particularly aimed at increasing local refining capacity and limiting unnecessary imports, have stirred mixed reactions. While industrialists like Dangote support the measures, oil marketers have expressed concerns, especially over Dangote’s suggestion to ban the importation of refined petroleum products.
One-Stop Shop: A game-changer for refining operations
Highlighting operational improvements, Dangote acknowledged the One-Stop Shop (OSS) initiative launched by the federal government to bring together agencies like the Navy, NIMASA, NPA, and Customs under one coordinated system.
“We’re now seeing improved efficiency in loading operations,” he said. “When issues arise, they are quickly resolved through the leadership of the Technical Committee headed by Mr. Zacch Adedeji. The OSS has eliminated a lot of bureaucratic bottlenecks.”
According to the Nigerian Investment Promotion Commission (NIPC), this kind of inter-agency collaboration is critical to improving Nigeria’s ease of doing business ranking and unlocking local manufacturing potential.
Analysts weigh in
Economic analysts suggest that while the naira is still facing external pressures, key indicators such as improved crude supply, rising foreign reserves, and reduced arbitrage opportunities are signs of recovery.
Speaking with Channels TV, economist Dr. Ngozi Arinze said, “Dangote’s optimism is not misplaced. If the government remains committed to prioritising local production and reducing reliance on imports, Nigeria will see a much-needed FX boost.”
However, she cautioned that “policy consistency, transparency in crude allocation, and broader macroeconomic stability are crucial for long-term impact.”
What to watch
- The Naira-for-Crude model is set to become a central pillar of Tinubu’s economic agenda going into 2026.
- Oil marketers are pushing back against any potential ban on fuel imports, citing supply and pricing concerns.
- Dangote Refinery, which is expected to refine 650,000 barrels per day at full capacity, may soon dominate local supply, altering Nigeria’s decades-long reliance on imported fuel.
Bottom line
Dangote’s endorsement of the federal government’s current economic direction sends a strong signal to both local and foreign investors. With continued policy support, Nigeria’s exchange rate could stabilise further, and the country may finally begin to reap the dividends of its long-awaited industrial transformation.
